Turkmenistan might be rich in oil and gas, but the country’s true wealth is its people. Human capital represents the combined health, knowledge, and skills of a country’s people. According to the World Bank, human capital explains two-thirds of the difference in wealth between countries. For example, the countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) could experience a 30% increase in wages if they were able to catch up to the human capital levels of the region’s more developed economies.
The HCI+ index calculates how much productive potential a child born today will acquire by the time they reach adulthood. For Turkmenistan, the data reveals a clear path forward: while the foundations are in place, there are significant gaps to bridge to ensure a prosperous future.
Source: The World Bank.
Turkmenistan’s Performance: The Three Pillars
Turkmenistan currently holds an HCI+ score of 174 out of a theoretical maximum of 325. This leaves a gap of 151 points. Here is how the country performs across the three vital pillars:
- Health (44/50): This is Turkmenistan’s strongest area. The probability of surviving to age 60 is 84.7%, and the “No Stunting” rate (a measure of early childhood nutrition and growth) stands at 92%.
- Education (112/188): Children can expect 11.6 years of schooling. However, the Tertiary Completion Rate is low at only 13.4%, and school quality scores (445/625) suggest that time in the classroom isn’t always translating into high-level skills.
- Employment (18/87): This is the most significant area of concern. Only 48.2% of adults and 43.1% of youth are currently working. While those who do work are often in wage-paying jobs, more than half of the potential workforce remains on the sidelines.
The Comparison: Where Turkmenistan Stands
Turkmenistan trails behind its peers. Its score of 174 is lower than the Upper-Middle Income average (204) and significantly lower than the Europe & Central Asia regional average (240).
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SUPPORT OUR WORKThe biggest “gaps” holding the country back compared to its neighbors are:
- Adult Employment: Accounts for 18 – 21 points of the gap with peer countries.
- Higher Education: The low university completion rate accounts for 14 to 22 points of the gap.
There is a notable difference between the potential of men (HCI+: 177) and women (HCI+: 171). While they have similar health and basic education scores, women fall significantly behind in tertiary completion rate: men 17.2% compared to women 9.5%, as well as in adults share at work men: 52.5% compared to women: 44.1%. This results in a 6-point gap in human capital for women which means that women in Turkmenistan currently have an earning potential 6% lower than men. Closing this gender gap alone would raise the entire nation’s future earnings by 3%.
The Path to Prosperity: How to Fix the Gaps
Turkmenistan has an opportunity for further improvement of 151 points (174/325). Each 10-point increase, which is achievable through targeted policy reforms, translates to roughly 10% higher future earnings.
- Improve School Quality: Raising the quality of learning in schools could lift expected earnings by a staggering 30.2%.
- Expand Higher Education: Increasing the number of students who finish university to regional standards could increase future earnings by 22.4%.
- Boost Employment: If Turkmenistan raised its adult work participation from 48.2% to the peer average of 72.8%, future earnings would jump by 17.7%.
- Target Health: While already strong, eliminating childhood stunting entirely would further strengthen the workforce and lift earnings by another 1.2%.
By focusing on keeping youth in school longer, improving the quality of that education, and creating more job opportunities, especially for women, Turkmenistan can close the 66-point gap with the rest of Europe and Central Asia, ensuring a wealthier and more resilient future for its citizens.
