The Amudarya river’s waterflow has declined significantly over the past 70 years and it is human activity, and not climate change, that is the primary driver behind the severe reduction in the river’s waterflow. This critical insight for Turkmenistan’s water security comes from a study published in the journal of International Soil and Water Conservation Research, titled “Analysis of rapidly decreasing discharge in the transboundary Amudarya River, Central Asia: considering climate change and human impacts”.
The authors analyzed 90 years of waterflow in Central Asia to evaluate how climate change and human activities changed the river’s flow between 1951-2020, compared to the baseline period of 1931-1950.
The results reveal that climate change slightly increased overall water availability through higher precipitation and accelerated glacier melt. However, human activities such as building dams and irrigation canals, and diverting water for agriculture, have drastically drained the river, severely reducing water flow in the middle and downstream reaches where Turkmenistan relies on it most.
Key drivers:
- Human activity accounted for 114-120% of the flow reductions across Amudarya.
- Climate change increased overall water supply by 14-20%, driven by 6-13% increase in precipitation and accelerated glacier melt in the Pamir Mountains.
- Despite climate-driven gains in waterflow, actual flow dropped by 54-77%.
Regional breakdown of waterflow changes
Streamflow reductions vary depending on the reach of the river:
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SUPPORT OUR WORK- Upstream: streamflow decreased by 22%, with human activities accounting for 140% of the decline.
- Downstream outlet (Kyzyljar): streamflow dropped by 77% in 1951-2000 compared to the pre-impact period (1931-1950). Human activity reduced flow by 88%, while climate factors provided a small offset (+11%). Over half of this reduction had already occurred by 1970.
- Other downstream areas: in Chatly and Samabay, the reductions are similar to Kyzyljar, around 77%. At Tuyamuyun and Bir-ata, streamflow fell by 54-65%, mainly because of water extraction.
The study highlights that the vast majority of water extractions occur between Kerki in Turkmenistan and the delta outlet at Kyzyljar, Kazakhstan. Between 1950 and 1990, irrigated land expanded by 150%, extending massive canal networks deep into the Turkmen and Uzbek deserts to cultivate water-intensive crops like cotton, wheat, and rice. Constructed near Kerki, Turkmenistan’s Karakum canal alone diverts 15% of the river’s total flow. Overall, 92% of the Amudarya’s water is consumed by irrigated agriculture.
While upstream glacier melting currently increases the streamflow, these benefits are temporary. Upstream glaciers are projected to shrink by around 50% by 2050 compared to 2010 and some glaciers may disappear completely. Climate change will also cause seasonal shifts with river discharge occurring earlier in the spring, and lowering water availability in late summer, disrupting agricultural activities. Similar risks have been noted in earlier reports.
Earlier reports have already highlighted the unsustainable land use and worsening water stress in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Despite many reports on these challenges, there has been limited progress on resolving these issues. The authors note that regional efforts through international treaties and institutions have yielded minimal progress so far and that mitigating severe shortages will require modernizing canal infrastructure to eliminate losses, implementing high-efficiency irrigation technologies, and strengthening transboundary water governance across all basin states.
