Turkmenistan 2030: What Has the Government Promised – And How Will We Know If It Delivers?

In 2025, the Government of Turkmenistan and the UN signed the United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework 2026-2030 agreement laying out specific, measurable goals to achieve by 2030. The framework aims to support Turkmenistan’s transition toward a more diversified economy, a resilient environment, and a more equitable social protection system. Achieving all of these goals requires $13 billion (46.1 billion manats) between 2026 and 2030– roughly 2.8% of GDP every year. There is also an 18% gap in missing data needed to track progress. Both figures matter: money not spent and data not collected are early warning signs that commitments are being ignored.

Priority 1: Good Governance and Inclusive and Diversified Economic Growth

The government has committed to diversifying the economy away from oil and gas, growing small businesses, reducing informal work, and improving digital services.

• Manufacturing as a share of GDP must rise from 16.4% to 20%
• Small and medium enterprise (SME) share in industrial production must grow from 9.4% to 15%
• Research and development spending must increase from 0.14% to 0.2% of GDP
• Private sector (non-governmental) employment must grow at 5% per year
• Informal employment among women must fall from 29.5% to 20%; among men, from 18% to 12%
• Today there are more than twice as many male individual entrepreneurs as female (69,677 men vs 32,773 women) – the framework commits to closing this gap

Priority 2: Environment and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Turkmenistan is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases. The government has signed international agreements including the Paris Agreement and the Global Methane Pledge, and this framework sets domestic targets to match.

• Total greenhouse gas emissions must fall from 111,728 to 82,261 gigagrams of CO₂-equivalent – a reduction of about 26%
• Methane emissions must be reduced by 30% in line with the Global Methane Pledge
• Renewable energy must increase from 0% to 10% of the national energy supply by 2030
• Water stress (currently at a critical 82.9%) must be brought under better management
• 500 green and safe schools must be certified across the country

Priority 3: Equitable Social Development and Well-being

This pillar affects the daily lives of every family in Turkmenistan. The government has committed to significantly increasing public spending and hitting concrete targets in health, schooling, and the safety of women and children.

Spending commitments:

• Total spending on essential services rises from 10.6% to over 15% of GDP
• Health spending: 1.6% → 5% of GDP
• Education spending: 4.7% → 5% of GDP
• Social protection spending: 4.3% → 5% of GDP

Children and education:

• Pre-school enrollment must rise from 44.4% to 100%
• Under-5 child mortality must fall from 34 to 25 per 1,000 live births
• Children aged 24–59 months developing on track (health, learning, well-being) must increase from 86.8% to 90%
• The proportion of children experiencing physical or psychological aggression (currently 67%) must be reduced by 30%
• Schools with disability-accessible infrastructure must increase from 0.9% to 20%

Health targets:

• Essential health service coverage: 87.5% → 89%
• Deaths from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease: reduced to one third of the 2015 baseline
• Tuberculosis incidence: reduced by 80% compared to 2015
• Capacity to meet International Health Regulations and emergency preparedness: 81% → 85%

Women’s rights and safety:

• A law specifically protecting women from all forms of violence must be passed by 2027
• Women making their own informed decisions about sexual relations, contraception, and reproductive health: 62.1% → 70%

Will the government of Turkmenistan follow through with these goals and commit the necessary funds and human resources needed to achieve these targets? We will find out in 2030.