Between 2000 and 2021, Turkmenistan’s growth was primarily driven by the rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP), a measure of how efficiently an economy or industry uses its inputs, which increased from 5% to 8.4%, while improvements in health, measured through life expectancy, averaged 0.2% and 3% respectively, remained at a low level.
What does the link between productivity growth and health improvements reveal about the country’s development priorities?
Investments in improving health and life expectancy have direct effects on the level of economic development and growth. Living one year longer can generate a 4% rise in a nation’s entire economic output.
Mirzobobo Yormirzoev and Amina Ayombekova`s study on “Health and economic growth in Central Asia” (2025) reveals how the health-related component of human capital affects economic performance across Central Asian republics for the period 2000-2021.
The growth accounting on a per-worker basis for all Central Asian countries shows that the region experienced favorable growth rates in output per worker. Kazakhstan stood out in the area for demonstrating consistent positive capital growth, with capital investment making up about 54%, productivity contributing 43%, and life expectancy impacting growth by about 4-5%.
Key findings on Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan, along with Tajikistan, had a substantial decline in the capital’s growth, dropping to a negative 2.1%, as well as a decrease in the growth rate of real output rates, falling from 7.7% to 6.4%.
On the other hand, the rate of growth of total factor productivity (TFP) increased from 5% to 8.4%, becoming the main growth engine of the country.
The growth rate of output per worker ranges from 5.8% to 5.5% while the growth rate of capital per worker declined significantly. In the first period, the growth rate was 1.7%, and it fell to -2.3% in the second period, exposing substantial inefficiencies or mismanagement in capital allocation.
Health-related improvements in Turkmenistan fell from about 8% to 5%, and although annual life expectancy growth was stable compared to neighbors, it remained one of the lowest in the region.
Taken together, these patterns indicate that Turkmenistan indeed benefited from efficiency gains and its recent growth depended primarily on productivity. While health improvements, research demonstrates, have had little influence on labor productivity. Noting the significance of health dimension to human capital, a healthy workforce boosts productivity and can become an asset to the economy. Failing to invest in human capital and health systems undermines the long-term growth potential and economic resilience, laying a solid foundation for the sustainable development of society.
