A scientific article published in the journal of Agricultural Water Management in 2020 by researchers from Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, titled “Development and utilization of water resources and assessment of water security in Central Asia”, provides an assessment of water security levels and the factors influencing them in five Central Asian countries. According to the study, Turkmenistan is classified as “basically safe” (level III), Kazakhstan ranked better (level II) and Uzbekistan ranked worse (level IV).
Important indicators
Central Asia faces water security and ecological challenges due to its unique geopolitical situation and transboundary rivers. These factors lead to increasing disputes over shared water resources.
Researchers evaluated water security in the region using various parameters:
- Ecology: Turkmenistan has high grassland (62.9%) and forest (8.78%) coverage, but severe soil salinization (68%).
- Water resources: Turkmenistan has lower water yield and availability compared to neighbors. Its utilization rate is very high (112.84%), similar to Uzbekistan. Other countries use 20-53% of their water resources.
- Socio-economic factors: Assessed using population density, GDP per capita, water consumption per GDP, and irrigation. Turkmenistan has 100% of arable land equipped for irrigation.
- Supply and demand: Turkmenistan’s water supply (0.68 ratio) is much lower than demand. Its per capita water supply (4681 m3) is moderate for the region. Groundwater contributes only 5.16% to total supply.
The study ranked water security levels across the region, using various indicators to assess ecological, resource quantity, socio-economic, and supply-demand aspects.
Turkmenistan scored 1.11 in overall water security, placing third in the region and achieving a “basically safe” rating. Despite low internal water production and heavy reliance on transboundary rivers, Turkmenistan maintains high water utilization and irrigation rates.
Ecological security
In ecological security, Turkmenistan ranks last due to high soil salinization from inefficient irrigation and overuse of agrochemicals. Shrub encroachment on grasslands is also reducing biodiversity and promoting desertification.
Quantity security of water resources
For water resource quantity, Turkmenistan ranks third. The country has the lowest water yield in the region and very high utilization rates, exceeding 100% compared to the 40% safety threshold. Approximately half of the water is lost to evaporation or leakage due to outdated irrigation systems.
Socio-economic conditions
Turkmenistan fares better in socio-economic conditions, ranking second behind Kazakhstan. Its water consumption per GDP has decreased significantly between 1997 and 2016, and is estimated to be 8.93 m3/USD of GDP.
Water supply and demand security
In water supply and demand security, Turkmenistan ranks fourth, with low rates of water supply per area and capita. A significant portion of surface water is diverted into irrigation canals, leading to substantial evaporation losses.
The researchers recommend that Turkmenistan prioritize water savings over consumption, improve water utilization efficiency, and implement integrated management of ground and surface water. Given the interdependence of water resources in Central Asia, regional collaboration is crucial for addressing these challenges effectively.
