The UNICEF report, titled “Generation 2050 in Central Asia”, provides a comprehensive demographic analysis of the five Central Asian nations from 2025 to 2050. It examines the evolving population structure of children and youth to quantify the potential for a “demographic dividend” created by a rising share of working-age individuals relative to dependents. The report proposes strategic policy and investment roadmaps in human capital – specifically in sectors like child protection, education, and health – to ensure this demographic window translates into long-term economic prosperity and social resilience for the region. Below is a brief summary of findings related to Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan is categorized as an “early-dividend” country. This means it is currently progressing through a demographic transition where the share of the working-age population is rising, and child dependency ratios are declining. The total fertility rate is projected at 2.6 births per woman in 2025, gradually declining toward the replacement level of 2.1 by 2050. The population is projected to grow from 7.6 million in 2025 to 9.6 million by 2050. This represents an increase of over 2 million people. In 2025, the median age is 26.9 years, expected to rise to 32.7 years by 2050. Strategic investment in human capital could boost Turkmenistan’s GDP per capita by an additional 9% by 2050.
Child Protection & Institutional Capacity
Turkmenistan faces significant challenges regarding institutional oversight and the workforce required to protect children. The country has a high rate of children in residential care, 226 per 100,000 children, which is more than double the global average of 105.
Meanwhile, 67% of children in Turkmenistan experience violent discipline, exceeding the global average. The country has an “alarmingly low” density of just 2 social service workers per 100,000 children. Countries with such low social service workforce ratios face “weak child protection gatekeeping systems” and an “increased reliance on institutional care” due to a lack of early family support. To reach regional benchmarks, Turkmenistan needs to recruit over 4,000 additional social workers by 2050.
Health and Nutrition
Turkmenistan exhibits the most concerning survival statistics in the Central Asian subregion. Turkmenistan is projected to have the highest under-five mortality rates in the subregion, estimated at 35 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025. While it has the highest regional rate for breastfeeding promotion (52.3%), it falls short of the 70% SDG target. Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS) usage to treat childhood diarrhea is also low at 47.1%, far below the 100% target.
Social Protection
The country has achieved 100% coverage for maternity benefits and 85% for child disability benefits. However, there are serious challenges remaining. Only 15% of children are covered under Universal Child Benefit (UCB), the lowest rate in the region. A Universal Child Benefit is a social protection instrument designed to provide a basic income floor for all families with children, regardless of their socioeconomic status or income level. It can help reduce stunting and malnutrition, which can cause irreversible damage to a child’s cognitive potential, as well the chances of poor school attendance and attainment. This is instrumental given that 4% of children live in severe food poverty, while 27% face moderate food poverty.
Education and Youth Employment
Donate to support Turkmen analysts, researchers and writers to produce factual, constructive and progressive content in their efforts to educate the public of Turkmenistan.
SUPPORT OUR WORKEarly childhood education enrollment stands at 31%, leaving the majority of children without school-readiness support. The out-of-school rate for upper secondary students is approximately 20%. Moreover, the youth unemployment rate is reported at 9.6%, with 14.7% of youth not in education, employment, or training.
Institutional and Fiscal Capacity
UNICEF notes that realizing the demographic dividend requires improving fiscal governance and resolving macroeconomic distortions. For example, the State-Owned Enterprise reform and subsidy rationalization could contribute over 41% of additional fiscal resources. There is also a need to broaden the tax base and strengthen digital tax administration to create more sustainable revenue for social sectors. Moreover, a major institutional priority must be to build a cadre of qualified social workers capable of delivering family support and gatekeeping to move away from the current institutionalized model.
Quotes from the report:
“Unlocking the demographic dividend is not only a matter of timely policy choices but also of prioritising rights-based, inclusive development pathways”.
“The future of Central Asia hinges not only on how fertility changes – but on how governments respond to the needs of the women and girls driving that change”.
“Protecting children from violence, exploitation, neglect, and harmful environments is not only a moral and legal obligation… but a critical investment in human capital development”.
“The size, speed and quality of these investments will determine the extent to which Central Asia can convert today’s demographic advantage into sustained, long-term gains”.
