In March 2024, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released the latest Human Development Index (HDI) data, including figures for Turkmenistan. Following the publication, Turkmen state-aligned media outlet Orient celebrated the country’s achievement, highlighting that Turkmenistan ranked second in Central Asia. However, this interpretation masks critical flaws in how HDI is calculated and presents an overly optimistic view of human development in the country.
On the surface, Turkmenistan’s HDI performance appears positive. The country’s index rose slightly from 0.761 in 2022 to 0.764 in 2023, driven by modest gains in life expectancy (from 69.9 to 70.1 years) and gross national income (GNI) per capita (from $16,886 to $17,716). Turkmenistan ranks 95th out of 193 countries and second in Central Asia after Kazakhstan. Its average HDI growth from 2010-2023 was 0.68% annually, and it improved eight positions in global ranking since 2015.
However, these numbers tell only part of the story – and a potentially misleading one. The HDI is a composite index of life expectancy, education, and GNI. A closer look shows that Turkmenistan’s relatively high ranking is propped up disproportionately by its GNI. The gap between the country’s GNI rank and its HDI rank is -9, meaning that without its high GNI, its development ranking would drop from 95th to 104th globally – placing it 4th among Central Asian countries instead of 2nd.
Source: UNDP, Human Development Index 2023.
This inflated GNI figure is itself problematic. It relies on the official exchange rate of 3.5 manat per U.S. dollar, while the black-market rate is approximately 19.5 manat. If the unofficial exchange rate were used, Turkmenistan’s GNI – and by extension its HDI – would be substantially lower. The high GNI is also largely driven by oil and gas exports, which do not reflect the real income or living standards of ordinary Turkmen citizens. The country has no official poverty line, lacks reliable and disaggregated data on income inequality, and does not publish accurate income figures for the general population. According to the HDI data the income shares held by the richest 1% in Turkmenistan is 19.5%, indicating a high level of income inequality.
Other HDI components also reveal gaps. The inequality-adjusted life expectancy index is 0.622 and the inequality-adjusted education index is 0.720. Life expectancy remains significantly lower for men (66.9 years) than for women (72.8), and average years of schooling for women (10.9) lag slightly behind men (11.5). While women hold 25.6% of seats in parliament and make up 40% of STEM graduates, key data on gendered income disparities is missing.
Moreover, despite having one of the lowest reported maternal mortality rates (5 deaths per 100,000 live births), other indicators such as adolescent birth rates (21.2 per 1,000 women aged 15-19) and the contribution of health deprivation to multidimensional poverty (82.4%) point to serious challenges. While the proportion of people classified as multidimensionally poor is just 0.2%, these figures may not fully capture hidden poverty due to limited and censored data.
Finally, the Planetary Pressures Adjusted HDI (PHDI), which accounts for environmental sustainability, reveals a 12.7% decline from the standard HDI and a drop of 7 positions in global ranking – another sign that the country’s development model may not be sustainable in the long term.
In summary, while Turkmenistan’s HDI may seem impressive at first glance, its ranking relies heavily on inflated income figures driven by resource exports and distorted by parallel exchange rates. The lack of transparency, absence of poverty and income inequality data, and structural gender and health disparities paint a more troubling picture of human development. A more honest assessment would recognize that behind the headline numbers, real progress for the population remains limited.
