A new study highlights that Turkmenistan has successfully managed critical resources like water and it performs relatively well regionally, but its long-term sustainability requires urgently addressing its unsustainable land footprint. The current model of land use in Turkmenistan for agriculture and grazing is far beyond sustainable levels and it is the country’s primary environmental vulnerability.
Below are the findings of a 2025 scientific paper titled “Absolute Environmental Sustainability Assessment of the Arid Central Asia by Downscaling Planetary Boundaries” by researchers at Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography in Urumqi, China, focusing on Turkmenistan’s environmental performance.
The paper presents a mixed but relatively positive environmental profile for Turkmenistan within Central Asia. Turkmenistan’s water consumption is sustainable, with its usage at 95% of its allocated boundary, which is a significant positive finding for a nation in an arid region. The authors estimate the sustainable limit for freshwater use in Turkmenistan to be 99.08 billion cubic meters. The country’s use of nitrogen and phosphorus is also considered sustainable. However, the land footprint is highly unsustainable, exceeding its environmental budget by over 13 times, indicating that the land required for agriculture and grazing is far beyond a sustainable level. The authors estimate that Turkmenistan can sustainably use 1 million hectares of land every year, but the nation used over 10 million hectares on average between 2000 and 2020.
Despite some sustainable practices, Turkmenistan contributes to the global problem of exceeding planetary limits, particularly in carbon emissions and land use. According to the authors of the scientific article, the most significant environmental problem facing Turkmenistan is the intense pressure on its land resources. The current model of land use for agriculture and grazing is far beyond sustainable levels and is the country’s primary environmental vulnerability.
The study essentially gives an environmental “check-up” to the five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. It aims to determine if human activities are within a “safe operating space.” A country is considered environmentally sustainable if its footprint stays within its assigned budget. If the footprint is larger than the budget, it is considered unsustainable.
Editor’s note:
The paper’s findings about Turkmenistan’s land footprint largely align with other research. Approximately 80% of Turkmenistan is covered by the Karakum Desert, meaning arable land is scarce. Soviet-era irrigation projects, particularly the massive Karakum Canal, have led to widespread soil salinization, making large portions of land unusable for agriculture. However, this conclusion is largely a result of a questionable methodology. The study calculated Turkmenistan’s “land budget” based on its GDP, implying that sustainable land area correlates with GDP.
The finding of a significant carbon overshoot is well-aligned with Turkmenistan’s status as a major fossil fuel producer and consumer with documented massive methane leaks. These leaks from aging gas infrastructure mean that the country’s carbon footprint is disproportionately large for its population and economic size, which supports the paper’s conclusion.
The paper’s conclusion that Turkmenistan’s water use is “absolutely sustainable”, is plausible based on the paper’s strict definition, but it conflicts with the broader consensus that Turkmenistan’s water management is highly problematic and a major contributor to one of the world’s worst environmental disasters in the Aral Sea.
