A report by the environmental intelligence company Kayrros “The Global Methane Pledge, Three Years On: Partial Progress Report,” published in September 2024, provides an update on the progress made in reducing global methane emissions since the launch of the Global Methane Pledge in 2021. The report focuses on the emissions of major oil and gas producers and methane emitters worldwide, including both pledge signatories and non-signatories.
The findings show that methane emissions are increasing in 11 out of 13 basins analyzed, with the exception of Australia and Turkmenistan. Notably, Turkmenistan’s methane emissions decreased by 10% in 2023 compared to 2020.
A Rare Government Follow-Through to a Commitment
Turkmenistan’s reduction in methane emissions is a significant achievement, demonstrating the government’s commitment to addressing this potent greenhouse gas. While the benefits of reducing methane emissions may not be immediately apparent to the Turkmen public, it contributes to the global effort to combat climate change and helps prevent Central Asia from becoming uninhabitable in the future. This achievement is particularly noteworthy, as it marks a rare instance of the Turkmen government following through on its commitments and working with international organizations to address the issue in a measurable way, although to be clear, no data, research or funding levels have been made public.
The Role of International Cooperation and Low-Cost Solutions
Turkmenistan’s methane emissions decrease is likely the result of the international partners’ targeting of a small number of extremely high-emitting sources, often referred to as “super-emitters”, which should have been relatively easy and inexpensive to fix. The Progres team has been highlighting these issues and advocating for cost effective solutions since 2023. This methane emission reduction was facilitated by the US providing expertise and funding to help Turkmenistan address methane leaks and venting. As a result, Turkmenistan is now on track to meet its goal of reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030. However, it is unclear how the remaining 20% reduction will be achieved or how this 10% reduction has been achieved.
A Cautionary Note
While the reduction in methane emissions is a positive development (if confirmed by satellite data), it is essential to be cautious of the government’s attempts to oversell its efforts and engage in greenwashing. State news outlets in Turkmenistan have already begun to brag about the reduction, claiming it as part of a broader “methane reduction strategy”, which purportedly includes reductions in the “energy and agricultural sectors” and that it improves “air quality and increases energy efficiency”. It is extremely unlikely that the reduction so far had anything to do with the agricultural sector. The impacts on air quality are overblown, given that most methane emissions in Turkmenistan come from oil and gas fields that are relatively distant from residential areas. These reductions have little to do with energy efficiency. Turkmenistan’s total primary energy consumption is still very high compared to the size of its economy and population.
The Global Methane Pledge: A Collective Goal
Global Methane Pledge is an agreement between 158 countries to reduce global methane emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2020. Notably, the agreement does not require each country to reduce its emissions by 30%; instead, the goal is to achieve a collective reduction of 30% in total emissions. This means that if some countries exceed the target, others can afford to miss it, as long as the overall goal is met. This explains why it is in the United States’ interest to help Turkmenistan, as it is invariably less expensive to upgrade this centralized infrastructure than the thousands of industrial sites across America.
The Way Forward
While Turkmenistan’s 10% reduction in methane emissions since 2020 is a notable achievement (particularly in comparison to the 11 others whose emissions actually grew), it is crucial to maintain a realistic and balanced view of this progress. We should acknowledge both the achievement and the need for ongoing scrutiny to ensure the government’s efforts are genuine and sustained. Moreover, it is essential to recognize that this reduction only applies to methane emissions, and not to overall greenhouse gas emissions, which remain a concern. To truly mitigate the worst impacts of climate change, Turkmenistan must go far beyond its current vague commitments and take more drastic and concrete action.
