In collaboration with national stakeholders, UNDP developed two policy briefs to identify climate adaptation priorities for Ashgabat and Dashoguz, Turkmenistan. These documents assess region-specific climate challenges, propose localized adaptation measures, and emphasize gender-sensitive approaches to ensure inclusive and effective responses to climate change impacts.
Common Climate Challenges
Both Ashgabat and Dashoguz are increasingly affected by climate change, sharing key vulnerabilities:
- Rising Temperatures: Average annual temperatures have increased over the past 40–50 years – 2°C in Ashgabat and 1.5°C in Dashoguz. By mid-century, Dashoguz could see an additional 2.2–3.2°C rise.
- More Hot Days and Nights: Both regions are projected to experience significantly more hot days over 30°C and tropical nights above 25°C. In Dashoguz, hot days could increase by 20 days, and tropical nights could double from 20 to 40 annually.
- Water Stress: Both cities depend on the Amu Darya River basin, which is vulnerable to climate-related reductions in flow and water quality.
- Disproportionate Impacts: Women, children, and the elderly are most at risk – due to health vulnerabilities, increased heat exposure, and reduced water and air quality.
Ashgabat: Urban Challenges and Climate Risks
Ashgabat, the capital, faces unique urban and geographic vulnerabilities:
- Temperature and Precipitation Trends: Between 1979 and 2023, average annual temperatures ranged from 16-18°C, with 200-400 mm of precipitation annually.
- Urban Heat Island Effect: Dense infrastructure amplifies warming, intensifying the impact of heatwaves on public health, labor productivity, and energy demand.
- Recurring Mudflows: The city, located at the foothills of the Kopetdag Mountains, has been affected by mudflows in 2024, 2022, 2019, 2018, and 2012, highlighting ongoing risks from heavy rainfall and upstream runoff.
- Seismic and Infrastructure Risks: Seismic activity and the lack of separated water supply systems pose additional challenges, especially during extreme events.
- Data Gaps: A lack of local climate data, forecasting capacity, and environmental monitoring systems limits the city’s ability to prepare for and respond to climate hazards.
Dashoguz: Agricultural Dependence and Environmental Pressures
As a rural, agriculture-driven region, Dashoguz faces severe climate-related stressors:
- Population and Economic Structure: 70% of residents live in rural areas, and agriculture and food production contribute 60% of the regional economy – worth 4.6 billion manat annually.
- Water Use and Demand: In 2020, the region consumed 3,403 million m³ of water, of which 99% went to irrigated agriculture. Since the 1980s, annual irrigation water demand has increased by 200-500 m³/ha.
- Temperature and Precipitation: Between 1979-2023, the annual temperature ranged from 12-15°C, with precipitation between 50-150 mm, indicating high aridity and drought risk.
- Dust and Salt Storms: Proximity to the Aral Sea makes Dashoguz susceptible to frequent salt and dust storms, degrading air quality and harming public health and farmland.
- Land Degradation: Overgrazing, heat, and water scarcity are leading to cropland salinization and pasture degradation, impacting livestock and food security.
- Climate Projections: With temperature increases and more extreme heat events, the region faces growing risks to crop yields, irrigation needs, and rural livelihoods.
Barriers and Systemic Gaps
- Lack of reliable, localized climate data and forecasting tools limits timely and informed responses.
- Underdeveloped infrastructure, especially in water management and agriculture, increases vulnerability.
- Limited institutional coordination to mainstream climate risk into regional development strategies.
- Gender-blind approaches miss opportunities to tailor adaptation measures to the specific needs of women, who are often more exposed to the consequences of water scarcity and extreme heat.
In summary, while Ashgabat struggles with urban-specific climate risks, Dashoguz’s challenges are rooted in agricultural vulnerability and environmental degradation. Despite their differences, both regions urgently need investments in climate-resilient infrastructure, improved environmental data systems, and inclusive planning frameworks. The UNDP policy briefs call for gender-sensitive, region-specific adaptation strategies that safeguard public health, economic productivity, and environmental sustainability across Turkmenistan.
