The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) project titled “Strengthening national capacity for Seismic Risk Assessment, Prevention and Response to Potential Earthquakes” has completed in December 2024. The project’s goal is to help the Institute of Seismology and Atmospheric Physics of the Academy of Sciences of Turkmenistan develop and implement a strategy for predicting and assessing earthquake risks and support the government in building emergency response capacity.
Originally scheduled to run from 2018 to 2020, the project was extended due to COVID-19, financing delays, and additional tasks such as certifying buildings in Ashgabat. The project had a total budget of $2,311,204, with the Government of Turkmenistan contributing $1.77 million and the UNDP providing $60,000.
One of the main tasks of the project was to increase the preparedness to respond and eliminate the consequences of earthquakes. However, the reports for 2021-2023 say that this task has not been carried out. Furthermore, while the budget of the project, the expenses, and the status of the tasks have been reported in detail, no brochures for the public were found on the project website.
Project outputs are not public
Project outputs such as geological and seismological data, updated seismic maps, final report on certification of Ashgabat’s building stock and the details of its vulnerabilities, alert systems, earthquake risk assessments, and probabilistic assessments of seismic hazards are not available on the project website.
Government is keeping silent on earthquakes inside the country
Although the government has participated as a donor to the project, state and pro-government media outlets did not mention the earthquakes that were happening within the country during the project period. However, the media regularly reports on the government expressing condolences in other countries in the event of earthquakes.
Why is the project relevant for Turkmenistan?
Turkmenistan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world, with high seismic activity in the Kopetdag mountain system in the south. The country suffered a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in Ashgabat in 1948 which killed around 80% of the population. Furthermore, the Institute of Seismology and Atmospheric Physics is said to register up to 6000 seismic events every year.
The planned main activities of the project were:
- Assess earthquake likelihood in Ashgabat;
- Evaluate seismic risk in Ashgabat’s buildings;
- Modernize the facilities and equipment of Institute of Seismology and Atmospheric Physics;
- Strengthen the ability of research institutes and government ministries to assess seismic hazards;
- Develop measures to monitor, alert, prevent and mitigate earthquake effects;
- Create a long-term strategy to reduce seismic risks.
Project information for the public has been limited to output activities, no data
The project’s website has annual reports with details about the budget and the results. Equipment and software expenditures totaled $521,041 from 2018 to 2023, primarily for IT infrastructure and scientific and technical equipment for seismic monitoring and analysis, seismic microzoning, inspection of buildings, and laboratory equipment. Additional $5,724 were used for printed materials and publications, but the exact description of the materials have not been provided. The budget for 2024 is not yet disclosed (as of January 8, 2025).
In 2018 the following results were accomplished:
- Established international partnerships and hosted a seminar;
- Hired consultants to analyze geological and geophysical data;
- Determined equipment needs for the Institute of Seismology and Atmospheric Physics;
- Outlined training plans for Institute employees.
The following task was initiated but only partially completed:
- Evaluation of seismic risks in Ashgabat (seismic measurements, development of seismic maps).
The outputs in 2019 are as follows:
- Collected geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, and seismological data;
- Conducted Geographic Information System (GIS) trainings for the employees of various institutions in Turkmenistan;
- Reviewed and updated seismic maps with recommendations;
- Completed initial building certification in Ashgabat;
- Procured necessary equipment and planned for future purchases.
In 2020, the project accomplished the following:
- Completed building certification in Ashgabat and created unified building passports;
- Identified effective methods for seismic risk assessment and microzoning;
- Developed a topographic and geodetic basis for Ashgabat;
- Delivered necessary equipment to the Institute of Seismology and Atmospheric Physics.
The results in 2021 were:
- Purchased the necessary scientific and technical equipment for the Institute;
- Determined seismic vulnerabilities for various building types in Ashgabat;
- Completed building certification and created single-type passport in machine-readable form;
- Mapped active tectonic fault zones and started seismic microzoning in Ashgabat;
- Initiated the creation of a GIS for seismic hazard and risk analysis;
- Purchased the necessary scientific and technical equipment for the Institute.
In 2022, the following results are achieved:
- Conducted seismic microzoning and engineering surveys for Ashgabat buildings;
- Performed a probabilistic assessment of seismic hazards;
- Advanced the creation of a GIS for seismic risk analysis;
- Initiated geological and geophysical works.
The outputs in 2023 included:
- Finalized the assessment of Ashgabat’s building stock and prepared a final report;
- Conducted training sessions and seminars for Institute employees.
