The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has released the latest edition of the annual report on global renewable power capacity expansions around the world. The report tracks renewable energy development from 2015 to 2024, revealing a generally positive trend across Central Asia, except in Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, where growth has been minimal or even negative. Turkmenistan is a regional outlier, with only around 1 MW capacity in 2015, and just 2 MW in 2024, negligible values in comparison to its neighbors.
- Kazakhstan has more than doubled its total renewable capacity from 2807 MW in 2015 to 5419 MW in 2024. However, this represents a slight decline from 2023 (240 MW lower), likely due to the retirement of older plants.
- Tajikistan saw steady but modest growth, from 4957 MW in 2015 to 5738 MW in 2024. In the last year, only 1 MW were added.
- Uzbekistan made a major leap in 2024. The capacity has grown from 1882 in 2015 to 2857 in 2023, but then the country has seen a remarkable 80% increase in just one year, reaching 5166 MW in 2024.
- Kyrgyzstan started with significant capacities of 3677 MW already in 2015, but saw a decline to 3143 MW by 2023, likely due to decommissioning of older hydropower plants. A small rebound brought the total capacity to 3258 MW in 2024.
- Turkmenistan is a regional outlier, with only around 1 MW capacity in 2015, and just 2 MW in 2024, negligible values in comparison to its neighbors, and most, or all, of which is hydropower.
While renewable power capacities are expanding, much of the existing capacity in Central Asia still comes from older hydropower plants:
- In Kazakhstan, hydropower accounted for 95% of all renewable capacity in 2015. By 2024, the share dropped to 52%, thanks to the growing role of other renewables.
- In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, hydropower remains nearly exclusive, more than 99% and possibly 100% of their total renewable power capacity.
- Uzbekistan, similar to Kazakhstan, has diversified. In 2015, hydropower was the dominant source, but by 2024, it represents only around 46% of its total renewable capacity.
- Turkmenistan’s reported renewable power capacity is entirely from hydropower.
Despite the rapid expansion of wind and solar power globally and the region’s strong potential, especially for solar energy, wind and solar energy remain underdeveloped in most Central Asian countries. However, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are leading the shift:
- In Kazakhstan, wind power capacity has grown from 72 MW in 2015 to 1411 MW in 2024. Solar PV capacity has grown from 57 MW to 1196 MW in the same period.
- Uzbekistan had no wind capacity in 2015, and only 1 MW in 2023. However, by the end of 2024, it had jumped to 501 MW of wind power. Its solar capacity has also grown strongly from only 1 MW in 2015 to 475 MW in 2023, and a record growth to 2275 MW in 2024.
Missed opportunities in Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan has vast potential for solar and wind energy. However, the government has shown little interest in pursuing renewable energy development. No major renewable projects or planned investments have been reported for the country. Instead, Turkmenistan continues to focus on natural gas development and production, actively promoting and inviting foreign investments into natural gas extraction. Officials describe natural gas as “the foundation of a sustainable, prosperous, and dynamic energy future” despite the global transition and trend away from fossil fuels.
