A new collaborative study by scientists from Austria, Switzerland, France, the USA, Tajikistan, and China, led by Achille Jouberton and Francesca Pellicciotti from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria, and published in Communications Earth & Environment, reveals a major shift in one of Central Asia’s most important sources of fresh water. Researchers have found that since 2018, snowfall in the Northwestern Pamirs has significantly dropped, leading to faster glacier melting and reduced runoff that feeds rivers across the region. The findings are especially relevant for Turkmenistan, which receives about 90% of its water supply from the Amu Darya river, fed by melting snow and ice in the Pamir Mountains.
Central Asia relies heavily on mountain glaciers for its water supply and hosts some of the last relatively stable mountain glaciers on Earth. However, more recent observations suggest that this stability has changed over the past decade. Unfortunately, after the fall of the Soviet Union, glacier monitoring largely stopped, leaving a gap in data on glacier health and melt trends. Using on-site hydrometeorological observations since 2021, combined with remote sensing observations and weather data, the researchers reconstructed how snowfall and snow cover changed between 1999 and 2023 in the Kyzylsu glacier catchment of the Pamir mountains, which feeds the Amu Darya River.
Their analysis shows that peak snow height in the region has been significantly lower since 2018, while annual precipitation has declined by around 28% in 2018-2023 compared to 1999-2018, especially at higher altitudes. Snow is also melting slightly earlier in spring than before. Earlier snowmelt means that glaciers lose their reflective white cover sooner, absorb more heat, and melt faster.
The study found that while snowmelt’s contribution to river runoff has decreased, this has been partly compensated by increased glacier ice melt. In the short term, this extra ice melt helps sustain river flow, but in the long term it will worsen water shortages once glaciers have shrunk too much.
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SUPPORT OUR WORKClimate projections show the Pamirs could warm by 3-6°C by 2100, depending on future developments, shifting precipitation from snow to rain and further destabilizing the glaciers. These changes are likely to alter the runoff timing, with less water available in spring and more later in the summer, potentially disrupting agriculture and water management across the region.
While uncertainties remain, the study highlights how climate change and shifting precipitation patterns are reshaping the health of glaciers and transforming Central Asia’s water resources. Understanding these changes matters for everyone because glaciers act as natural reservoirs and their decline threatens water availability for drinking, farming, and hydropower. The researchers emphasize the need for better mountain monitoring to track snowfall and melt processes and to understand the future of the Pamir’s glaciers.
