An article “Green transition in Central Asia: who transitions faster” by Kursiv Media, a publication based in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, provides insight into the green transition of Central Asian republics. The author gives an overview of historical emissions per capita and carbon intensity in these economies, offering a rough forecast of potential carbon emission trends.
According to data from the Global Carbon Budget, Turkmenistan is the second-highest CO2 emitter per capita in Central Asia, with 11 tonnes of CO2 per capita, surpassed only by Kazakhstan at 13.8 tonnes. CO2
The article highlights a significant decline in CO2 emissions across most Central Asian republics following the Soviet Union’s collapse, attributed to the economic downturn, but emissions have gone up in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan due to economic development and hydrocarbon extraction. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have the lowest per-capita CO2 emissions thanks to their abundant hydropower resources.
The article also examines the carbon intensity of these economies excluding Turkmenistan. The forecast indicates a decline in carbon intensity for most economies except for Tajikistan. Carbon intensity, measured as CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, is expected to improve across the region according to the author’s crude forecast.
Notably, the article fails to fully address the question posed in its title. The author defines the “green transition” as a decline in CO2 emissions, and according to their rough forecast, Tajikistan – already a low emitter – is expected to reach the lowest CO2 emissions by 2030. However, it is essential to note that this prediction relies on a basic linear model, which uses past performance to project future trends. While predicting future emissions is inherently uncertain, the growing threat of climate change and increasing investment in renewable energy sources suggest that CO2 emissions would only decline.
