A new study by researchers from Imperial College London, published in April 2025, highlights the extraordinary heatwave observed in March of this year in Central Asia. Recorded temperatures were up to 10 °C higher than average for this time of year, with the most extreme heat observed during March 18-22 across the region, including Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan faces rising exposure to early-season heatwaves, with significant implications for water, agriculture, infrastructure, and public health. The extreme weather events highlight the urgency for targeted and scalable adaptation efforts.
Central Asia is characterized by strong seasonal cycles, with cold winters and hot summers. However, March is usually significantly cooler than what was observed this year. According to the report, there is substantial evidence that early-season heatwaves in Central Asia, particularly in March, are warming significantly faster than global or regional averages. As the global mean surface temperature has risen 1.3°C, early heatwaves have gone from nearly impossible to relatively common.
The latest heatwave is part of the broader climate change-induced impacts that are becoming more frequent and intense. The earlier and more severe heatwaves have been linked to the rapidly warming Arctic and declining soil moisture, in addition to global atmospheric changes.
Impacts on water, agriculture, and infrastructure
Turkmenistan, in particular, is vulnerable to these impacts due to its environmental and infrastructural challenges. Over 80% of the country is desert, with significant desertification problems. It heavily depends on the Amu Darya River for irrigation, yet as a downstream nation, has limited control over water flows. Furthermore, the canals and irrigation systems are outdated and cause more than 50% water losses.
The heatwave happened during a critical time for agriculture, coinciding with the planting season in Central Asia. More frequent and earlier heatwaves threaten the cotton production in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, with cotton dependent on early-season irrigation. Increased evaporation of water and salinization of soil are also threatening yields.
Energy and infrastructure challenges further exacerbate Turkmenistan’s vulnerability. While officially reported electricity access rates are high, rural and remote desert areas often lack reliable, modern energy services. This limits access to cooling and refrigeration, posing a serious health risk.
Heat risk governance across the Central Asian region, including Turkmenistan, is underdeveloped, with limited institutional capacity and data availability limitations. Although Turkmenistan acknowledges the growing climate threat, adaptation strategies are still in early stages. However, the country is engaging in regional efforts such as the upcoming Central Asia Climate Change Conference (CACCC-2025), where countries will discuss adaptation, climate finance, and urban vulnerabilities.
