The UNDP report titled “Risks from Climate Change for Water and Agriculture in Turkmenistan”, November, 2024 has been developed as part of a national adaptation planning (NAP) process to address climate-related risks. Studies have been conducted in Ashgabat and Dashoguz Province, focusing on water resources and irrigated agriculture, respectively. This article provides an overview of key messages of the report along with the suggested recommendations on climate change adaptation in the two regions.
Water resources in Turkmenistan
Turkmenistan, characterized by its arid climate and vast deserts, faces critical water management challenges. Over 97% of the country’s water resources originate from external sources, making Turkmenistan highly dependent on transboundary rivers. As climate change exacerbates water scarcity, effective preparation and long-term strategies are essential for sustaining agriculture and supporting Turkmenistan’s growing population.
The Amu Darya River, which accounts for 94% of the nation’s surface water, is the primary water source. Turkmenistan diverts more than 30% of the Amu Darya’s total flow, primarily through the Karakum Canal, to meet domestic needs. The Murghab River provides an additional 4.4% of surface water. Agriculture is the main water consumer in the country and is entirely dependent on artificial irrigation.
Climate Risks and Vulnerabilities
Key climate threats to Turkmenistan’s water sector include:
- Less water during summer and autumn due to earlier snowmelt and increased evaporation;
- Increased spring discharge but lower summer and autumn availability;
- Elevated salt concentrations and pollution from upstream drainage.
The following projections were made based on the climate modelling:
- Summer temperatures in Dashoguz may rise by up to 3.2°C by 2050 and in Ashgabat up to 3.3°C;
- More extreme heat days and heavy rain events are anticipated in the future in both regions;
- Seasonal water shifts are expected with increased spring water discharge (from the Pamir mountains) into the Amu Darya river and reduced flows in summer and autumn.
These changes are expected to impact irrigation, crop yields, and livestock, posing additional challenges for farmers and vulnerable populations.
Water supply analysis in Ashgabat
Ashgabat depends on the Karakum Canal for its water. The canal transports water from the Amu Darya across hundreds of kilometers of desert, making it susceptible to significant water losses from evaporation and infiltration into sandy soil. Closer to Ashgabat, sections of the canal are lined with concrete to reduce these losses.
Within Ashgabat’s boundaries lies the Altyn Köl (not to be confused with the Altyn Asyr Köl), and some reserves of fresh groundwater are also available. The city’s water is allocated for a variety of uses, including drinking, domestic supply, healthcare, industry, recreation, and fire safety. While drinking water is prioritized, a substantial portion of the supply is used for irrigation in parks and the Green Belt – a ring of trees surrounding the city to improve the urban climate. The following risks are expected for water supply in Ashgabat:
- Water losses in the Karakum Canal due to its open design leads to evaporation and infiltration into soil;
- Lack of systemic separation between water systems for different users, leading to competition among drinking water, irrigation, and industrial supply;
- Heavy rains, particularly in the Kopet Dag Mountains, increase the threat of flash floods, landslides, and mudflows, endangering infrastructure and human safety;
- Rising temperatures will exacerbate evaporation losses in the Karakum Canal and reservoirs;
- Water-intensive agriculture upstream in the Mary and Tejen regions reduces canal discharge available to Ashgabat;
- Increasing salinity from upstream drainage and warmer temperatures promoting bacterial growth threaten drinking water quality;
- Insufficient irrigation for the Green Belt could compromise afforestation efforts, reducing urban climate protection and increasing public health risks.
Water supply analysis in Dashoguz
Dashoguz Province faces unique vulnerabilities due to its position downstream on the Amu Darya. The Tuyamuyun Hydro Complex, which regulates water storage and distribution, is expected to experience significant seasonal fluctuations due to climate change. The Tuyamuyun Hydro Complex supplies water for agriculture, drinking, and industrial uses. About 70% of the population of the Dashoguz province is rural and the food industry makes up 61% of the total industrial production in the region, making the local population especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In the region, agriculture consumed 3381 million m3 of water out of the total 3404 million m3 of water consumed in 2020.
The following risks related to water supply in the region were identified:
- Amu Darya river discharge may decrease and threaten consistent water supply to the region;
- Reservoirs and open irrigation systems suffer extensive water losses;
- Accumulation of salts in irrigated lands and water supplies affects agricultural productivity;
- Outdated irrigation networks increase inefficiencies and waste;
- Spring snowmelt and extreme precipitation events raise the risk of floods;
- Poor water quality exacerbates health risks, particularly for rural communities but also poses threats to local agriculture and livestock.
Adaptation Strategies for Ashgabat and Dashoguz province
The report provides key recommendations to be taken to adapt to climate risks:
- Infrastructure improvements such as lining all channels and pipes and covering reservoirs to reduce evaporation and infiltration losses;
- Promoting modern irrigation technologies and water reuse systems;
- Expanding reservoir capacities to regulate seasonal water supply and employ thermal mixing or biological methods to reduce evaporation;
- Using drought- and salinity-resistant crops for parks, green spaces, and farming, and heat-resistant livestock breeds;
- Implementing sustainable pasture management and the use of salinity-resistant crops to mitigate soil salinity;
- Expanding afforestation areas and enhancing tree planting along reservoirs and the Karakum Canal to stabilize soil and protect water channels;
- Introducing water pricing to discourage waste of water;
- Providing long-term land leases for farmers to encourage investments into adaptation strategies;
- Improving water treatment facilities by incorporating water reuse capabilities;
- Creating distinct systems for drinking water and irrigation to reduce competition for limited water resources, in particular in Ashgabat;
- Considering new water resources in particular through water desalination from the Caspian Sea;
- Improve drainage to combat soil salinization;
- Educate water management agencies with updated climate data for proactive planning;
- Coordinating with upstream countries for sustainable water management.
Climate change poses a significant threat to Turkmenistan’s water-dependent economy. Developing a comprehensive National Adaptation Plan that integrates water management and agriculture is essential for resilience. Adapting agriculture to the increasing temperatures, changes in water supply patterns, and promoting efficient water use is critical for water supplies and food security for the growing population of the country.
