A new article by researchers Rahat Sabyrbekov from the OSCE Academy in Kyrgyzstan and Indra Overland from Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, published in Environmental Research Letters examines the vulnerability of urban infrastructure in Central Asia’s six largest cities, including Ashgabat in Turkmenistan. The study is titled “Urban climate resilience in transition economies: the case of Central Asia”. In their assessment, Astana and Almaty have been shown to have higher preparedness due to active reforms and modernization effects, whereas Ashgabat received one of the lowest resilience scores due to many issues related to water stress, lack of green spaces, limited investments into urban resilience, and lagging environmental policy and climate resilience planning.
The authors developed an Urban Resilience Index to assess how well the cities of Almaty, Astana, Ashgabat, Bishkekn, Dushanbe, and Tashkent are prepared for the impacts of climate change. These cities face a combination of rapid urbanization, environmental challenges, and limited capacity to adapt. Much of the region’s infrastructure dates back to the Soviet times and suffers from inefficiencies and deterioration. Other ongoing issues include rising air pollution, shrinking green spaces, outdated public transport systems, and inefficient water management.
The Urban Resilience Index was based on 8 indicators:
- Water withdrawal per capita;
- City budget per capita;
- Number of hospital beds per capita;
- Green area per capita;
- Access to basic drinking water services;
- Share of the population with convenient access to public transport;
- Concentration of fine particulate matter;
- Number of extreme heat days.
These indicators are collected from a wide range of sources including FAO, city budget reports, national statistics offices, various UN sources, WHO, and national meteorological offices. While the raw data was not provided in the article, it is said to be made open in November, 2025.
According to the findings, Astana and Almaty ranked highest in overall resilience, scoring 0.70 and 0.64, respectively. These cities have made significant infrastructure investments, offer relatively strong public transport systems, and have begun to implement climate adaptation strategies.
On the contrary, Ashgabat received one of the lowest resilience scores (0.44). The city faces multiple issues, including severe water stress, a shortage of green spaces, and lack of investments into urban resilience projects. However, it did rank relatively well in terms of public transport accessibility, meaning that a high share of the population has a convenient access to public transport.
The study also included a qualitative analysis of governance structures and policy frameworks. However, Ashgabat was excluded from this analysis due a lack of publicly available data on the city’s development strategy.
The researchers emphasize that Central Asian cities face risks from climate change and rapid urbanization. Astana and Almaty show greater preparedness through active reforms and modernization efforts via strategies that account for sustainability, modernization, and governance reforms. Ashgabat, on the other hand, lags behind, especially in terms of environmental policy and climate resilience planning.
The study recommends several key actions to improve urban resilience in Central Asia:
- Strengthen governance and policy frameworks by decentralizing decision making, enhancing institutional capacity, and incorporating climate resilience into urban planning;
- Expand investment mechanisms by diversifying financial resources and tapping into climate finance instruments;
- Promote sustainable urban solutions such as urban forests, green roofs, and more efficient water management systems.
