The World Bank report titled “Better Education for Stronger Growth” focuses on the economic outlook for Europe and Central Asia (ECA), with a particular emphasis on education and human capital in the region. To policy makers in Turkmenistan it provides insights into the economic challenges and opportunities in the region and suggests policies for promoting sustainable economic growth. Key takeaways related to Central Asia, including Turkmenistan, are summarized below.
Stalled economic growth
Central Asia, including Turkmenistan, is facing serious economic challenges. The labor productivity, which is output per person employed, has significantly declined roughly from 8% in 2000-2007 to nearly 2% in 2020 – 2023. On the Economic Complexity Index, which measures how diversified and complex countries’ exports are, Central Asian countries score below the world average. For example, in 2021 Turkmenistan scored ‘- 0.82’ which is the lowest score in Central Asia. These challenges reflect the poor quality of vocational and higher education as it is failing to cultivate a skilled workforce capable of driving economic growth and innovation.
Vocational Education and Training (VET)
VET enrollment in Central Asia is notably high, averaging 45% among upper-secondary students – more than double the global average. However, secondary VET graduates often secure jobs similar to those available two decades ago, failing to adapt to the increasing demand for cognitive and social skills. Many VET systems lack strong private sector involvement, leading to a disconnect between education and labor market needs.
Additionally, students from disadvantaged backgrounds, who are most likely to enroll in VET programs, often struggle in essential subjects like math and reading, further limiting their job prospects. This disconnect raises concerns about the efficacy and long-term impact of such programs in fostering upward mobility and reducing inequality.
Poor Quality of Higher Education
Central Asia faces significant challenges related to declining education quality particularly in higher education. Adult cognitive skills among individuals with tertiary degrees are lower in countries with poorer higher education quality, underscoring the need for significant improvements. The focus is on obtaining diplomas rather than on gaining knowledge or developing skills. None of the Central Asian universities rank among the world’s top 500, highlighting a critical gap in research and academic excellence. Similarly, per capita investment in research and development remains low compared to developed countries. Insufficient funding, inadequate teacher training, outdated curricula, and a lack of modern infrastructure are among the top reasons for the poor quality of tertiary education.
Turkmenistan is the only country in Central Asia where the population under 20 years of age is likely to decline by 2050 (see Figure 1). Shrinking youthful population could limit Turkmenistan’s economic potential as it will shrink the workforce, increase the skills gap, strain social security and health systems and lower innovation and entrepreneurship. This means Turkmenistan has to make strategic investments in higher education and upskilling today to mitigate the negative impacts of this demographic shift.
Figure 1. The population under 20 years of age will shrink in most of Europe and Central Asia by 2050
Source: The World Bank Report.
Emigration of Highly Skilled People
Brain drain is a significant concern in Central Asia. As the report shows, the countries with fewer higher education graduates see the highest emigration rates among them. For example, in Kazakhstan over one third of individuals with higher education degrees are emigrating while in Turkmenistan it is roughly 13-14% (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Countries with a smaller share of people with higher education see the highest levels of high-skilled emigration
Source: The World Bank Report.
The cost of losing a highly qualified worker outweighs the benefits from the remittances and the knowledge spillovers the worker generates. ‘Pull’ factors such as a strong demand for high skilled labor abroad and “push” factors such as limited job opportunities for some specialized professions in origin countries drive the emigration of highly skilled people from Central Asia. Improving wages and job opportunities in critical high-skilled occupations can help retain talent.
Some of the recommendations for improving the quality of education also apply to Turkmenistan:
- Improve Infrastructure and Teaching: Support teachers with strengthened training and structured pedagogy; update teaching curricula, teach at a right learning level rather than grade level, raise the prestige of the teaching profession, bring in younger and more motivated teachers and invest in education infrastructure.
- Strengthen Foundational Learning: Ensure strong foundational learning at all levels of education to provide a solid base for further skill development. This also includes addressing low enrollment in early childhood education.
- Reform VET Systems: Raise the age of selection, ensure stronger private sector involvement in providing practical training and apprenticeships and better align VET education with market needs. If VET schools fail to equip students with skills needed for a dynamic labor market, reconsider their size and format.
- Enhance Higher Education Quality: Increase funding for universities, grant them greater autonomy to foster innovation, and enhance better management and accountability through competitive grants and performance evaluations.
- Promote Lifelong Learning: Facilitate lifelong learning opportunities for workers to adapt to technological advancements and changing job demands, particularly for older workers.
- Address Brain Drain: Focus on improving wages and job opportunities in critical high-skilled occupations to retain talent. Create a conducive environment for talent development and retention by enhancing job opportunities and fostering innovation.
As the report concludes, “the best time to act on these crucial reforms in ECA region was a decade or two ago. The second-best time is now”. Turkmenistan should urgently prioritize improving the quality of education, particularly at the tertiary level, to foster innovation and reform the stalled economic growth.
