Brain drain poses a serious challenge to Central Asia’s future, including Turkmenistan. Over 100,000 Central Asian students are currently studying abroad, marking a 60% increase since 2000. Yet, only about one-third plan to return home after graduation. While Turkmenistan-specific data is scarce, trends from neighboring countries provide valuable insights.
For a broader overview of the topic read our earlier articles that explain the concept of brian drain, who emigrate from Turkmenistan and why, factors stimulating youth migration, and recommendations for Turkmenistan to turn the brain drain into a brain gain.
Understanding Brain Drain
Brain drain refers to the emigration of highly educated and skilled individuals. It often results from economic, political, and social shortcomings. Many young Turkmens leave in search of better job opportunities, higher wages, personal freedoms, or access to quality education.
While most migrants are low-skilled laborers heading to Turkey and Russia, a significant number of highly educated individuals are also leaving Turkmenistan. For example, in Kyrgyzstan, 13% of labor migrants have higher education, while in Tajikistan, 38.5% of migrants with higher education end up in construction jobs in Russia. This contributes to brain waste – a mismatch of skills and employment – that benefits neither country. From anecdotal data we know that many highly trained professionals in Turkmenistan such as teachers, nurses and doctors quit their jobs to pursue unskilled labour in Turkey or Russia because it pays well. This is a significant loss for individual potential as well as for Turkmenistan as a whole.
Another layer of brain drain involves students who pursue higher education abroad. As of 2023, 68,232 Turkmen nationals were studying overseas, mostly in Russia, Turkey, and Belarus. Though exact return rates are unknown, comparisons show that 39% of Uzbek and 33% of Kyrgyz students abroad do not plan to return. If similar trends hold, Turkmenistan could be facing a long-term loss of young talent.
Economic Impact of Brain Drain
The Human Flight and Brain Drain Indicator evaluates the economic cost of skilled emigration. This includes skilled workers and professionals – like entrepreneurs and doctors – who emigrate due to poor economic conditions or political repression. Turkmenistan scores 4.1 out of 10 – low compared to regional peers – but the impact may be underestimated due to limited data (see Figure 1). Emigration reduces the skilled labor force, stifles innovation, and lowers tax revenue.
Figure 1. Human Flight and Brain Drain in Central Asia 2006 – 2023
Source: Fragile States Index: E3: Human Flight and Brain Drain.
Migration does bring short-term economic benefits. Remittances make up 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP, 24% of Kyrgyzstan’s, and 14% of Uzbekistan’s. According to the World Bank, without remittances, poverty would rise from 9.6% to 16.8% in Uzbekistan and from 10% to 50% in Kyrgyzstan. Between 35.5% and 66.7% of Central Asian youth migrants contribute economically to their home countries while abroad. Such financial contributions could help alleviate poverty and be used as investment into education, health and entrepreneurship in Turkmenistan.
However, the long-term losses from migration are steep. Tajikistan lost nearly $80 billion from the emigration of 266,000 specialists. The World Bank estimates each highly skilled migrant costs a developing economy $50,000 annually in lost tax revenue, reduced innovation potential, and education costs. Applying this to Turkmenistan, if 30% (20,470) of its 68,232 students abroad never return, the annual loss could reach $1.02 billion.
Overall, addressing brain drain requires more than creating jobs. It demands systemic reforms to improve political freedoms, access to quality services, and a supportive environment for innovation and entrepreneurship. Turkmenistan can transform brain drain into brain gain by incentivizing skilled migrants to return and invest their knowledge and financial resources at home. Returnees need opportunities for professional growth, access to credit, functioning institutions, and a transparent legal framework to contribute meaningfully to national progress.
