September 2024: Palaw costs decline by 8%.
Fluctuating Ingredient Prices and Global Trends Impact Costs in Ashgabat.
In September 2024, the average cost of preparing palaw in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan fell to 63.6 Turkmen manat, marking an 8.1% decrease from the 69.1 manat reported in September 2023. However, this is a 5.6% rise compared to the 60.2 manat cost in August 2024. On a global scale, food prices increased by 2.1% in September 2024, according to the FAO’s Food Price Index.
Ashgabat experienced a general reduction in the prices of most palaw ingredients in September 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. Wheat flour and beef saw price increases of 10.2% and 3%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis. In contrast, rice prices showed the largest decline, dropping by 34.5%. Other notable decreases included onion (-19.8%), carrot (-4.6%), and sunflower oil (-2.6%), as depicted in Figure 1.
FAO Price Index Changes for Various Product Categories
- The FAO Cereal Price Index, which includes wheat and other grains, decreased by 10.2% year-on-year in September 2024, driven by stronger competition among exporters and reduced global demand for wheat.
- The FAO All Rice Price Index dropped by 0.7% in September 2024.
- The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index surged by 17.8% year-on-year, reaching its highest point since early 2023, supported by a tightening supply outlook following lower oilseed production in the 2024/25 season.
- Finally, the FAO Meat Price Index registered a slight increase of 4.8% over the same period.
Correlation between palaw prices and the black-market rate
In recent years (2020-2022), Palaw Index price changes closely followed the USD/manat black market exchange rate. However, this correlation seemed to weaken due to a stable exchange rate around 19 manat/USD since 2022. The biggest driver of changes in palaw prices in 2023 were external factors such as increased supply of sunflower oil and wheat flour in the global market.
Methodology
Prices of ingredients in the Palaw Index are collected for 1 kg of onion, carrot, beef, rice, and flour, and 1 liter of cooking oil. Based on the methodology, in order to cook palaw for a family of four, we use 0.3 liters of cooking oil, 0.5 kg of onion, 1 kg of carrots, 0.6 kg of beef, 1 kg of rice, and 0.5 kg of flour in our formula. Please click here to learn more about the methodology of the Palaw Index. Progres team strives to make Palaw Index reports as inclusive as possible by tracking the price changes of palaw in all major cities of Turkmenistan. Therefore, we kindly ask you to help us in collecting the prices by filling this out the form.
