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World Bank Groundswell Report: Internal Climate Migration in Central Asia

According to the World Bank Report, internal climate migration in Central Asia is expected to increase by 2050 in all three scenarios: the pessimistic reference scenario, the inclusive development scenario, and the climate-friendly scenario.

  • Pessimistic reference scenario: the projected number of climate migrants is 2.4 million (3.4 percent of the total population), the internal climate-based migration will increase by 26 percent.
  • Inclusive development scenario: the projected number of climate migrants is 1.9 million (2.5 percent of the total population), the internal climate-based migration will increase by 38 percent.
  • Climate-friendly scenario: the projected number of climate migrants is 1.7 million (2.4 percent of the total population), the internal climate-based migration will increase by 20 percent.

Expected Areas for In-Migration (migration into an area) by 2050:

  • Ferghana Valley, the area around Tashkent, Uzbekistan;
  • Southern Tajikistan (including Dushanbe);
  • Settlements such as Karagandy, Nur-Sultan, and Kostanay, and rainfed croplands in northern Kazakhstan;
  • This is due to projected increases in both water availability and crop productivity;
  • Population growth is expected to increase in these areas due to climate-based internal migration.

Expected Areas for Out-Migration (migration out of an area) by 2050:

  • Areas along the southern border of Kazakhstan;
  • Areas surrounding the Ferghana Valley in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan;
  • Areas around Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan;
  • Areas in eastern Turkmenistan and southern Uzbekistan, along the Amu Darya River;
  • This is due to expected decreases in water availability and crop productivity in these areas.

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