Turkmenistan’s Development Dilemma: A Deep Dive into Poverty, Governance, and Social Gaps

The United Nations published a Common Country Analysis (CCA) for Turkmenistan outlining the context for sustainable development in the country. The analysis was a collaboration of 19 UN agencies, funds and programmes. The major development challenges facing Turkmenistan are summarized below.

Poverty and Social Protection

• Lack of poverty data and ineffective social assistance: There is no national poverty baseline or reliable poverty estimates, and the existing mechanism for targeted social assistance is insufficient. Although Turkmenistan emphasizes being a socially oriented state, economic growth has not translated into poverty reduction, especially in rural areas.
• Gaps in social protection: Only 50.9% of urban women and 19.7% of rural women aged 15-49 are covered by health insurance, highlighting inequities in access to basic services.

Governance and Human Rights

• Weak governance and corruption: Despite a stable political environment, public administration is ineffective and corrupt, legislation is weak and non-inclusive, and civic space is shrinking with unregistered CSOs banned.
• Deficits in data and evidence-based policy-making hinder development policy design and monitoring. Human rights violations, political persecution, and limited fundamental freedoms remain serious concerns.
• World Bank Governance Indicators: “Rule of Law” improved marginally (from 6.2 in 2018 to 6.6 in 2023), but other indicators like Voice & Accountability, Government Effectiveness, and Control of Corruption stagnated or declined.

Inflation and Dual Exchange Rate

• High inflation impacting real incomes: Social benefits are not fully indexed to inflation, eroding living standards. The IMF estimates inflation to rise from -1.6% (2023) to 6.3% (2024) and 8% (2025).
• Dual exchange rate system: Ongoing state control of the economy perpetuates an untransparent dual exchange rate system, complicating economic transactions and impacting trade and investment.

Gender Equality and Women’s Rights

• Legal improvements but weak implementation: Although laws on women’s rights have improved, implementation remains poor. Access to reproductive health services is unequal, and 58% of women accept violence as normal.
• Gender-based violence (GBV): High prevalence, with 68.6% of women and girls aged 15+ subjected to sexual violence by non-partners. There are limited support services and no specific GBV criminalization or prevention strategy.
• Labor market inequality: High informal employment among women (29.6%) vs. men (18%); traditional gender roles restrict women’s and girls’ opportunities.
• Gender gaps in education and decision-making: Disparities persist in tertiary education, and women are underrepresented in the workforce and public life. National action plans lack focus on critical issues like early marriage and teenage pregnancy.

Education

• Low education funding: Public spending on education dropped to 4.4% of GDP in 2023, far from meeting needs.
• Universal primary education was achieved, but regional disparities remain.
• Low pre-primary participation: Only 49.8% of children enrolled in organized learning one year before primary school.
• Limited access for children with disabilities: 0% of schools are adapted for students with disabilities.
• Low digital and internet access: Only 41.7% of schools have internet; digital divide hampers quality education.
• Mismatch with labor market: Education system does not align with labor market demands, limiting youth employability.
• High NEET rate: 14.9% of youth (15-29 years) are not in education, employment, or training.
• Lack of non-formal and vocational learning opportunities, and limited distance education for higher and vocational education.

Key Development Statistics

• Violence against children: 68.6% of children aged 1-14 experienced violent discipline; 48.8% experienced physical punishment.
• Healthcare spending: Only 1.8% of GDP spent on healthcare in 2023 (national target: 5% by 2025; global target: 10%).
• SDG financing gap: Estimated at 2.8% to 5.5% of GDP annually (2026-2030), equivalent to $13-$25 billion/year, or $373-$733 per person annually.
• Youth and migration: Youth make up over a third of the population, with 3.6% of children having at least one parent abroad, and an estimated 37,390 returning migrants annually.