A report, Beyond the Silk Road: Navigating the Complexities of Central Asia’s Public Opinion of China by Central Asia Barometer, highlights the evolving public sentiment toward China in Central Asia, shaped by concerns over land, labor, and economic dependency. This sentiment is influenced by demographics, media exposure, and specific concerns like “land grabs” and debt reliance, which generally dampen perceptions of China.
China has become a key player in Central Asia given its large investments in the region. In 2024, China surpassed Russia as the main trading partner for most Central Asian countries, with China-Turkmenistan trade alone exceeding $10 billion in 2023.
Figure 1. Trade Volume in Billions of US$ Between China and Central Asian Countries
In Turkmenistan, unlike neighboring countries with mixed views, public opinion of China remains highly favorable, despite a gradual decline in favorability from 80.5% in 2021 to 71.6% in 2023. About 75% of Turkmen respondents believe Chinese investments will increase job opportunities, and over 80% trust that China’s involvement in infrastructure will benefit the country. Support for Chinese technology remains high, with over 75% favorability. While in 2019 roughly 70% of respondents in Turkmenistan showed opposition to Chinese workers, by 2023 it declined to 12%.
Demographics also play a role: older Turkmen are more supportive of Chinese workers and development projects, and urban and news-savvy respondents tend to view China more positively. The region of Lebap, which benefits from Chinese infrastructure projects like the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, exhibits strong support. In 2022, for example, 95.9% of Turkmenistan’s gas exports went to China, representing 72.3% of Turkmenistan’s total exports.
While anti-China protests have occurred in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan has largely avoided such unrest due to restrictions on public assembly and lack of ethnic or border tensions with China.
Public opinion in Turkmenistan on China, Russia and the US has declined over time. The most significant decline in favorability was towards the US which consistently lagged behind China and Russia.
Figure 2. Public Opinion Favorable Views of China, Russia and the UN in Turkmenistan
Overall, there is a consistently positive picture of public opinion toward China in Turkmenistan. Optimism about China’s role in Turkmenistan appears bolstered by ongoing economic and infrastructural collaborations, especially under the Belt and Road Initiative.
