On April 8, 2025, the World Bank Inspection Panel registered a formal Request for Inspection concerning key projects linked to Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP). The request was filed by two individuals from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, representing downstream communities along the Amu Darya River. Fearing retaliation, the requesters chose to remain anonymous and submitted their complaint via the Kazakhstan-based NGO Rivers without Boundaries.
The Rogun Hydropower Project: Ambitious but Controversial
The Rogun Hydropower Plant, located in Tajikistan, is designed to be one of the tallest dams in the world. It is the centerpiece of the Rogun Hydropower Program, a massive infrastructure effort intended to transform Tajikistan into a major electricity exporter in Central Asia. The estimated cost for completing the project is US$6.29 billion. Funding is drawn from multiple sources including:
- US$2.14 billion from the Tajikistan state budget;
- US$1.25 billion from projected electricity sales;
- US$2.9 billion from concessional loans and grants provided by ten Development Partners: World Bank, European Investment Bank (EIB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), Kuwait Fund, Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), OPEC Fund, Abu Dhabi Fund and An unnamed bilateral financial institution.
Key Risks for Turkmenistan and the Amu Darya Basin
The registered complaint outlines serious risks posed by the Rogun project to downstream communities in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The major concern is the potential 25% reduction in the Amu Darya River’s flow during the filling of the Rogun reservoir. This decrease would further worsen water scarcity, intensify desertification, and increase soil salinity and negatively affect the health and well-being of 8-10 million people in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Environmental groups warn of devastating consequences for biodiversity, especially in the Tugai Forests of the Tigrovaya Balka Nature Reserve, a UNESCO-listed site, and for critically endangered species such as the Amu Darya false shovelnose sturgeon.
The October 2024 Non-Compliance Report by the Rogun Alert Coalition further claimed that the World Bank approved the project based on an outdated Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) from 2014. This assessment ignores the cumulative and transboundary impacts on ecosystems and people in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan.
Lack of Transparency and Public Participation
Another major concern is the lack of transparent consultation with affected populations. Civil society organizations point to the absence of project documents in local languages like Turkmen, Uzbek, and Karakalpak, and a failure to engage in meaningful dialogue with downstream communities.
Fear of government retaliation has also stifled public participation. The need for anonymity among complainants highlights the limited civic space in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, making it difficult for local voices to be heard in decisions that may directly affect their lives.
Smarter Alternatives: Smaller Dams and Renewable Energy
In December 2024, Rivers without Boundaries presented a detailed analysis of alternative energy development options to the World Bank. The coalition argued that building the dam to its maximum height is neither the most effective nor the most sustainable choice. They proposed alternative scenarios, including:
- A lower-height Rogun Dam by reducing Normal Water Level from 1255m to 1070m;
- Mixed energy solutions combining smaller hydropower output with expanded solar and wind energy.
These alternatives offer:
- Faster relief for Tajikistan’s winter electricity shortages;
- Lower construction and operating costs;
- Fewer greenhouse gas emissions e.g. 10-15% increase vs. 60% under current plan;
- Reduced displacement by saving up to 60,000 people from resettlement;
- Lower risk to ecosystems in downstream countries like Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan;
- Improved energy resilience in the face of climate change.
The environmental coalition argues that these options not only safeguard communities but also align better with global climate goals and Tajikistan’s own development needs.
Overall, environmental groups and affected communities are calling for an immediate suspension of funding until a transparent and independent investigation is completed, one which accurately assesses transboundary and cumulative impacts, conducts a meaningful consultation with affected communities and evaluates alternative energy solutions. For communities in Turkmenistan, the outcome of this process could have life-altering consequences – determining whether their water supplies, ecosystems, and livelihoods will be protected or jeopardized by one of the world’s most ambitious hydropower projects. The World Bank Management is required to provide a written response with their views on these issues by May 7, 2025.
