The International Accountability Project (IAP), a global advocacy organization, developed a public tracker to monitor projects proposed by development banks to Central Asian and the South Caucasus countries.
This tracker utilizes data for the period of January 1, 2020 to June 30, 2024 from the Early Warning System, an NGO dedicated to ensuring local communities receive verified information about projects being considered by major development finance institutions, as well as clear advocacy strategies – ideally before funding decisions are made. The Early Warning System Database is updated daily.
Turkmenistan is included in the tracker, with 50 projects proposed during the specified period, totaling an expected investment of $783 million. Of these 50 projects, 47 have already reached either “Approved” or “Active” status, while 3 remain in the “Proposed” stage. The projects have been funded by several development banks, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the World Bank (WB), and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
Chart 1: Proportion of projects in Turkmenistan per development bank between January 1, 2020 – June 30, 2024
Source: International Accountability Project
According to information by IAP, the ADB proposed the highest proportion of projects in Turkmenistan by monetary value. Among these, the largest project is the “TAPI Gas Pipeline Project (Phase 1)”, proposed on May 29, 2020, with a value of $500 million. This project is still categorized as “Proposed”, meaning it has not yet been approved or signed. The website does not provide reasons for the lack of progress on this project.
Development banks assign a risk category to each project to assess its environmental and social impact. Category A denotes the highest risk, with the risk level decreasing in alphabetical order (B, C, etc.). Projects with unclassified risk are marked as ‘U’ for “Undisclosed”.
For projects in Turkmenistan, 64% have an undisclosed risk category, followed by 26% classified as “B”, 6% as “C”, and 4% as “B”. The TAPI project proposed by the ADB is categorized as “A” indicating the highest risk.
When examining the proposed projects between January 1, 2020, and June 30, 2024, it is evident that most were proposed before Serdar Berdimuhamedov assumed the presidency on March 19, 2022:
- During the period from January 1, 2020 to March 18, 2022, a total of 41 projects were proposed with a combined value of $775 million.
- In contrast, from March 19, 2022, to June 30, 2024, only 9 projects were proposed, with a total value of $7.23 million.
The data indicates a significant decline in both the number and value of projects proposed for Turkmenistan since Serdar Berdimuhamedov assumed the presidency in March 2022. This trend suggests a shift in development priorities and international engagement, which could have implications for the country’s economic and infrastructural growth. The continued monitoring will be essential to understand the long-term impact of this significant change.
